This week Josh and Austin are talking about autonomous vehicles! In light of this being episode 007, the James Bond theme will be taking over so be sure to have your shaken, not stirred, martini handy (unless you’re driving, of course)! Some of the topics they will discuss include the levels of autonomy, the major players in the industry, concerns and legal issues surrounding the technology, and predictions for the future of autonomous vehicles. They’ll also provide their take on Tesla, Google, and other investment opportunities related to this industry. So sit back, relax, and let Josh and Austin take the wheel (get it?) on this week’s episode of The Invested Dads!
Human error has really caused roughly 94% of accidents on the roads. Artificial intelligence can save lives over time as these machines get better at reacting. And they can react quicker because they're not flawed like a human mind. Click To TweetTalking Points
5 Levels of Autonomous Vehicles, Maybe 6 if You Include Level Zero [1:48]
The Major Players in Autonomous Vehicles: Tesla, Google, GM, and Uber [6:57]
“Tesla’s Autopilot Could Save Millions of Lives. How Many People Will It Kill First?” [9:37]
Rideshare Your Autonomous Vehicles When You’re Not Using Them [14:48]
Your Weekly Dad Joke (Granddad Edition) [16:30]
Predictions for the Autonomous Vehicles Industry: Mergers and Replaceable Batteries [17:11]
5G Technology and its Role in the Future of Autonomous Vehicles [20:57]
“Riding” the Autonomy Growth with Your Investments [23:27]
Biggest Set-Backs of Autonomous Vehicles Today [27:23]
What’s Next for Autonomous Vehicles? [32:59]
In Conclusion, Get Your Free Gifts! [37:36]
Links & Resources
Oct 14, 2019 Bloomberg Businessweek. Article by Zachary Mider, “You Gotta Smash a Few Cars To Make An Autonomous Vehicle: Tesla’s Autopilot could save the lives of millions. It will kill a few of us first.”
5 Levels of Autonomous Vehicles
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Full Transcript
Intro:
Welcome to The Invested Dads Podcast, simplifying financial topics so that you can take action and make your financial situation better. Helping you to understand the current world of financial planning and investments, here are your hosts, Josh Robb and Austin Wilson.
Josh Robb:
It makes me hyper, smelling your black coffee.
Austin Wilson:
Just smelling it as enough to…
Josh Robb:
That’s all it takes for me.
Austin Wilson:
Oh, that caffeine smells good. All right. Hey, Hey. Hey. Welcome back to The Invested Dads Podcast. I’m Wilson, Austin Wilson here with Robb, Josh, Robb. In light of this being our seventh episode, we’re going to call it Episode 007. So buckle up your proverbial seatbelts or actual if you’re driving, please buckle up. Not wearing a seatbelt is terribly irresponsible and think with me for a second, what would James Bond drive today in 2020 or maybe beyond? Would he even have to drive at all with all the technology at his fingertips from the mighty Q. So imagine a modern day 2020 James Bond sipping on a martini, shaken, not stirred of course, in the back seat of an autonomous Aston Martin being chased by the bad guys. I don’t know the open container rules in the areas where the super spy operates, so take the story with a grain of salt and always abide by your local traffic laws.
Well, we might not be so far from this becoming a reality. So today’s episode is about autonomous vehicles.
Josh Robb:
Autonomous, does that mean you stick with one vehicle for the rest of your life?
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, no, Josh, that is monogamy.
Josh Robb:
Okay. So that just means you know all the car parts?
Austin Wilson:
No, Josh, again, that is anatomy.
Josh Robb:
Okay. So autonomous, huh? That would be … You know what? I saw a good article on Wikipedia. We’ll link to that below.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, that really describes it, yeah.
Josh Robb:
And so there’s also some good articles coming up. Because it is a newer technology.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah.
[1:48] – 5 Levels of Autonomous Vehicles, Maybe 6 if You Include Level Zero
Josh Robb:
But there are five levels to autonomous vehicles, right? So autonomous vehicles are vehicles that have technology to reduce the amount of things the driver has to do. There’s five levels. Level zero is a car with no driver assistance.
Austin Wilson:
So there’s really six if you include levels zero.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, yeah. Zero is this. No, none. No Autonomy.
Austin Wilson:
So James Bond would say about levels zero, “Well, I like to do some things the old-fashioned way.”
Josh Robb:
That’s true. And that would be like my Jeep Wrangler. There’s no, no help.
Austin Wilson:
It doesn’t even shift for you.
Josh Robb:
It does not. I have to do that myself.
Austin Wilson:
Like a horse and buggy.
Josh Robb:
Yep. So level one though is the first level autonomous vehicles and that’s where they have, not cruise control, but adaptive cruise control and also some sort of lane assistance. And so think of a normal cruise control or the old cruise control. You set it, it stays at that speed no matter what, you’ll go that speed no matter what’s in front of you.
Austin Wilson:
The one where you can rear end the car in front of you if you keep the same speed.
Josh Robb:
That’s right. So an adaptive cruise control, which is this first level, what they’ve really started this kind of ball rolling for autonomous vehicles is the idea that, hey, you could set your pace, but the car knows what’s in front of it and if it gets closer to the vehicle in front of it, it will adjust or adapt the speed to keep you that safe distance.
Austin Wilson:
So it’s like sonar.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
Like a bat.
Josh Robb:
Yes, they do use that type of idea of the constant checking of where are the things around me. The same is true with the lane assist. If you try to change lanes on a four-lane highway and there’s someone beside you in your blind spot, the car itself can prevent you from doing that if you have this lane assist.
Austin Wilson:
I think this level technically would even also have some measurement system where it looks at the lines on the road, on a highway too where …
Josh Robb:
Keep you from drifting.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, it keeps you from drifting. So you get a little sleepy on the road after a big lunch or something like that, then it’ll kind of … If you start going over a line and don’t plan on it, it’ll kind of help you back.
Josh Robb:
Yep. And so that’s kind of the starting. That’s level one. And then as you go up level two, you get a little more. And so that’s where you can have some sort of driving assist, but you need to have your hands either on the wheel or right there at the wheel. You got to be ready to take over because it can’t do everything. The driver assist, in a sense, can keep you in the lane, help you merge and move, but it doesn’t have the full autonomy that you’re looking for. So level two, it helps you adjust the speed and the steering, but you got to be ready to grab it at any kind of change. So let’s say there’s a guy on a bike beside you or something, the car doesn’t know what to do yet. It doesn’t know how that guy’s going to swerve or move lanes. It’s not there.
Then you go to level three, that’s where the vehicle is capable of driving themselves. Under ideal conditions, that’s it, you just set it, you let it go. So you’re there, still in the front seat, you still got your steering wheel, but it’s doing it.
Austin Wilson:
But it’s not everywhere, right?
Josh Robb:
No. So level three, you’re really limited to divided highways, limited access. Meaning you can only get on and off on the ramps.
Austin Wilson:
Really like on interstate.
Josh Robb:
Yes. And so that gives you the ability to … There’s not as much input that it has to worry about. That’s the big deal there.
Josh Robb:
So then you move up to level four, that’s where they can drive themselves without human interactions. So pretty much you get in the car, you say or you type or however you put it in, “Hey, this is where I want to go. Here’s the address.” You let it go. So you’re still inputting where it’s going. You’re sitting there, but it’s doing it.
Austin Wilson:
And there’s still some restrictions on where that would be available probably with level four, right?
Josh Robb:
Yes, yeah, and again, that’s more … So level three is on the highways, level four is you take that same and move it to probably a little bit more main roads. But in town and with traffic, you probably have to pay attention.
Then level five is fully autonomous. You may not even have steering wheel and pedals at this point. You get in a car, you tell it where it needs to go, and you sit back, eat your donut, and let it drive. And so that’s the point where the goal … That’s the goal, that’s the end goal is they’re no longer, in a sense, cars that we think of with steering wheels and pedals. The seats may not all even face forward at that point.
Austin Wilson:
It’s more of a chauffeur.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, and so that’s the goal is to get to point where that vehicle has enough information in technology to know what to do in all situations.
Austin Wilson:
Well, then that gets the ability to save us our three and five minute commutes to work.
Josh Robb:
That’s right.
Austin Wilson:
We just don’t even think about it. Just get in the car.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
Austin Wilson:
That’s level five.
Josh Robb:
For three minutes.
Austin Wilson:
So yeah, I kind of think we’re probably at around level 2.5. I would say that legally speaking, we’re probably at level two. So Tesla and Autopilot, we’ll talk about that here more in a little bit more depth soon. But Tesla and their autopilot system is probably a level two that they say explicitly, “Hey, keep alert and be ready to take over any moment.” But I think that people take advantage of this and treat it more like a level three system, where they really don’t do anything. There’s reports of people sleeping or reading or whatever on the highway in these Tesla Autopilot vehicles.
So yeah, I would say we’re probably around the 2.5. This is a progressive scale, so we’re only going to get more and more automated with where the technology is and how available it is over time.
[6:57] – The Major Players in Autonomous Vehicles: Tesla, Google, GM, and Uber
Austin Wilson:
So Josh, who are the major players in autonomous vehicles in general?
Josh Robb:
Right now, you mentioned Tesla is the one that goes to first in mind for a lot of people. When you talk about self-driving cars, they are the first movers. They’re the first ones to really bring out to market something with that capability.
Austin Wilson:
A mass market.
Josh Robb:
Yes. And so they have their Tesla models that they’re described as that, hey, at some point you’re going to not have to worry about driving this thing. Right now, like you said, it’s kind of that two to three range. But they all sort of know because they push these things out before there’s really any regulations on either, so they were the first out there and they had to ask for forgiveness rather than permission attitude, where they pushed it out and said, “Hey, we’re going to use the US population as a guinea pig to see how this works.” And there’s been some results from that that had been tragic, but there’s also been a lot learned for the positive as well.
Austin Wilson:
Right, right.
Josh Robb:
So Tesla is the first one that comes to mind. Google has their own division, Waymo. That’s one of their offshoots of the main, you know, Google, when you think about their search engine-
Austin Wilson:
It’s called, their other bets.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, their other bets. They split those out a while back and really are showcasing what they’re trying to do. And this is one of the big ones. They’re putting a lot of money into-
Austin Wilson:
For sure. They’re losing a lot of money on it.
Josh Robb:
Losing a lot of money into this idea. But they have a lot of advantage there though because you think of Google’s maps. Because when it does come to level four and five, when the cars are driving themselves, they’re going to need to navigate. And so those things that they’ve already been driving ahead are already available for them. Whereas, Tesla are going to need to rely on maps from somebody else to get there.
Austin Wilson:
True.
Josh Robb:
And then a GM has won their cruise division, which isn’t actually just GM. There’s a lot of other auto companies that are actually participating in GM’s research as an auto industry. Honda I think is one of the ones there. They’re all putting their chips in together saying, we as a group may be able to come up with this type of project.
Austin Wilson:
It’s not a cheap process by any means. There’s a lot of research and development costs and I think GM is trying to leverage their size, they’re a big auto company, but with some other companies’ scale and cash too to jump into the game a little bit bigger than they would by themselves.
Josh Robb:
And then last is Uber. They were trying to do it on their own and they’re still looking. They may have to do a merger or something to really become a bigger player, but their concept being, hey, our job is to get people one spot to another that doesn’t have a car or don’t have access to a car. If we don’t have a driver, that would be great. Maybe we have a car that just gets you one way or another and you don’t have to worry about the awkward conversation with that driver along the way.
Austin Wilson:
I have my own thoughts on that. We’ll talk about soon. I’m pretty excited.
[9:37] – “Tesla’s Autopilot Could Save Millions of Lives. How Many People Will It Kill First?”
Austin Wilson:
So, yeah, specifically speaking about Tesla’s Autopilot, there was a really, really well written case study in Bloomberg Businessweek on October 14th of 2019 and the title was, “Tesla’s Autopilot Could Save Millions of Lives. How Many People Will It Kill First?” I thought that was a really catchy title, but the article was really great and a lot of good data in there. But some key points that I think are worth talking about is that Tesla itself is really aiming to dominate the global auto market by building the world’s first self-driving car. Autopilot isn’t there yet, but it is the crucial first step that they need to take to be there and to be that first completely automated car. Autopilot has logged more than 1.5 billion, billion with a B, not million, billion miles, 1.5 billion miles.
While the manual states that drivers need to pay attention, while they would say that it’s a level two, that’s not always been the case. Many users trust the technology and even sleep or read while driving. That’s a little bit more the level three, where Tesla itself wouldn’t really say it’s quite that safe yet, but they’re working on it.
The artificial technology is really all about machine learning. It’s actually killed four or five people over this time. But the more data that the systems collect, the better the technology can get. So the technology just self learns. So the more data that’s in there, the more the cars have seen, the more the cars have reacted, or that they’ve just learned on being on the road for billions of miles now. And it makes it better and better all the time.
Josh Robb:
When you talk about that, they’re learning from the experiences.
Austin Wilson:
Right.
Josh Robb:
And that part of that is not only how they react, but how the driver reacts as well, right? Going back to my bicyclist, so if there’s a bicyclist on the side of the road, it could do a lot of things. Now us as humans, we’ve seen people on bikes before. So if we see them leaning or there’s a car in front of them, we know they tend to swerve out when they’re going around a car. We know what we’re doing, the car doesn’t until it sees it multiples times and learns, okay, a bike in front of me on the right. If another car is approaching it, it tends to swerve in front of me, I need to slow down and give a space. That’s the learning that it does is over experiences.
That’s actually one of the key weaknesses in the software currently is that there’s no official recognition yet of motorcycles and cars, or motorcycles and bicycles, I’m sorry, where they’re so small and they do things so differently than a car that they have not yet learned enough to make those informed decisions, the cars themselves, so it requires more of a human oversight. And that’s probably one of the bigger pitfalls of the technology as of now. And me, as a motorcycle rider, it scares me to death because I’m like, if I’m riding along the highway and Tesla is cruising down the road and doesn’t see me and swerves that’s not good.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. Or it sees you in reacts differently.
Austin Wilson:
The wrong way.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
Exactly. Hopefully, over time, that will get better. But through this machine learning and this artificial intelligence, new updates are constantly being rolled out. The owners really say like, every couple of weeks there’s a big update and that every single update, the software makes the car seem and react more humanlike. So I think we’re headed the right direction and I’m hoping, personally, that I hear some good news on the motorcycle, bicyclist side of things in the future. Because I think that might be a hang-up, not necessarily for people who, obviously people who ride motorcycles and bicycles, but people who own the cars don’t want to buy a car that would do something unsafe.
Josh Robb:
Right. And when you talk about acting more humanlike, we’re trying to get away from acting humanlike but you want human, at least understanding. And that’s where it’s getting to. Has a faster reaction time, but you want it to react the same way human will do, but just quicker.
Austin Wilson:
Right.
Josh Robb:
And when it comes to …
Austin Wilson:
And more consistent.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. And when it comes to the human piece of that, early on this, when they first rolled this out, it was a lot of jittering, starting, and stop because the computer was just very confused. There’s a lot of data being pushed through it, but it’s over time okay. A park car is not scary from the computer standpoint because it’s not moving anywhere and I could ignore it, but when it kept seeing cars early on, it kept thinking, oh, break. It could turn. Well, there’s nobody in it to make a turn, so it has to acknowledge what and when it’s doing something.
Austin Wilson:
Somewhere there’s a YouTube video out there, probably the first autopilot drive. It was probably awful. But the truth is that human error has really caused roughly 94% of accidents on the roads, and that artificial intelligence can save lives over time as these machines get better at reacting. And they can react quicker because they’re not flawed like a human mind. A human mind is very powerful, but nowadays some of these computers can make quicker decisions than the human can. And that, in the long run, will save lives. We’re not really there yet. It does seem like society really has a perfection requirement for this to really fully approve of this technology where, in my opinion, just being safer than a human would probably rather … I would rather that be the threshold.
Now, that plays to the title like, yeah, it’s going to save a lot of lives, but it’s going to … There are people that are going to be impacted and already have been first and I think that, that’s a tough reality of this technology. And I think it’s the same with a lot of these technologies over time.
[14:48] – Rideshare Your Autonomous Vehicles When You’re Not Using Them
That’s Tesla Autopilot. Another couple interesting points is that renting out your Tesla, that’s something that Elon Musk has talked about, where if you have a Tesla with full autopilot, you should be able to rent it out when you’re not driving it to really ride share and let other people pay you to use your car when you’re not using it. Musk says that you can’t afford not to. And he actually said that owning a car other than a Tesla would be like owning a horse in a few years. It just wouldn’t make financial sense.
Josh Robb:
That would be rough. I’m allergic to horses.
Austin Wilson:
I know. So Josh, you might have to have a Tesla, Tesla jeep. It’s the cyber truck.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
You’re going to get a cyber jeep truck.
Josh Robb:
That’s the weirdest car I’ve ever seen.
Austin Wilson:
I guess when we talk about timelines about autonomy and where that’s all headed, Tesla is known, so they’re the big player here that’s pushing this out first. So we’re going to use them as the bogie for the timeline. But Tesla, known for very aggressive, very optimistic timelines, they said that at the end of 2019 that this technology through autopilot should be available in late 2020 for full autonomy. Even the ride sharing capabilities and stuff like that.
Josh Robb:
So available, but legal is the question.
Austin Wilson:
Who knows if that would be legal.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, that’s the crazy thing there, but I think that’s a bit optimistic. There’s a lot of years and billions more miles of data gathering, perfecting, and then the legislation and legal side of it before it really goes mainstream. Plus, if you check out our recent episode, where we made 20 bold predictions for 2020, we do briefly discuss how we think the cyber truck launch will be late as Elon Musk sometimes has problems with his optimistic deadlines, like he snoozes those reminders on his iPhone. So that could very well happen again for autopilot going full autonomy.
[16:30] – Your Weekly Dad Joke (Granddad Edition)
Josh Robb:
All right, Austin. Let’s take a short break and do a dad joke.
Austin Wilson:
Uh-oh.
Josh Robb:
This one though is a dad joke from a dad’s dad. My dad sent me this joke actually today.
Austin Wilson:
It’s a granddad joke.
Josh Robb:
At lunchtime, I got a text from my dad and he sent me this joke just out of the blue. You’re ready?
Austin Wilson:
I’m ready.
Josh Robb:
If you want to get a job in the lotion industry, I got one piece of advice for you, okay? Make sure you apply daily. That’s the way you get a job, make sure you apply daily.
Austin Wilson:
That is true. And this time of year, that dry skin is real.
Josh Robb:
I mean it’s dry.
Austin Wilson:
Apply daily.
Josh Robb:
Yep. So if you want to get a job in the industry, make sure you’re applying daily.
[17:11] – Predictions for the Autonomous Vehicles Industry: Mergers and Replaceable Batteries
Austin Wilson:
While not really being a part of our bold projections for 2020, Josh, and I have some speculation. We’re not necessarily always speculators, we like things that we know, but sometimes it’s good to dream. Sometimes it’s good to have your ideas. So Josh and I each have some autonomous vehicle speculation that we think could happen.
Mine is that Tesla should buy Uber and make an autonomous vehicle fleet. That solves a couple of issues. First of all, that gives Tesla huge test fleet to log billions and billions of miles and maybe hopefully, offset some of their losses because they wouldn’t be paying for drivers and then Tesla could become more profitable and that could be good news. Number two, Uber would win because their stock price really has not done well since they went public. And a lot of that is due to the issues that they’re having obviously with profitability, but also with the driver versus employee versus contractor, however their categories in which state or whatever that they’re having. So if you don’t have drivers, you don’t have these issues. There’s my speculation. Tesla buy Uber, save both companies some money and develop that technology further, rapidly.
Josh Robb:
And for me, it’s around … I’ve had some conversation with some people, some in the auto industry and some friends and family who are really into this autonomous vehicle. We live here in the Midwest. There’s a lot of distance between cities. And so my biggest hangup and issue really is the battery. And so there’s a certain amount of miles you can drive before you need to charge your battery. I know they got the fast charge places now, where it supposed to be quicker to fully charge it up, but it still takes time. So I think one of the big steps forward will be the ability to solve that battery issue. And so whether that’s some sort of replaceable battery, where you have a gas station, but instead of filling it with gas, you remove your battery and replace it with a charged one. Whether it’s subscription-based or pay per go or however it works, the idea that the battery I think especially for small towns that are distanced apart here, especially in the Midwest area, that would be the biggest factors.
If I’m going to go from here, in Ohio down to Texas, how long is that going to take me using a current autonomous vehicle? Because when we talk autonomous vehicles, they’re electric as well. I should point that out I guess. That’s the way they’re going is the technology is pushing both the autonomous and electric vehicle in the same direction, merge together. If I wanted to drive me somewhere, but I’m going to have to stop and charge it up every 300 miles, that adjust the trip. And so if they have the ability to not only change out the batteries, but the autonomous vehicle knows, okay, here’s the route I have to take so that when my battery is low, I’m next to a charge spot or a chain spot. I think that all needs integrated together.
Austin Wilson:
And it would have to be then some uniform size batteries between car companies and stuff like that, so there’s a lot of opportunity for standardization there where you can just pull in your electric, autonomous Chrysler minivan and get the same battery or the same size battery that a Tesla Model X or whatever it would take.
Josh Robb:
Right, and for the autonomous vehicle to know that. So if I put in, hey, Texas, it doesn’t just take off and hope that there’s somewhere close by when it’s at 5% out in the middle of nowhere in Kansas or something. It’s like, “Oh, wait a minute. Let’s makes sure that the routes are programmed in to know the distance and all those factors.” And then what if you hit traffic, does it adjust the route to know, okay, we’re going to have to make us stop sooner? That autonomy needs to play into those factors as well.
[20:57] – 5G Technology and its Role in the Future of Autonomous Vehicles
Austin Wilson:
I think another technology that goes well and impacts autonomy is the technology of 5G, and we’re going to have a full episode dedicated to 5G technology in the future. But overall, if you look at your cell phone, chances are you look down and you’ll see LTE or 4G or whatever, through whatever provider you’ve got. And that is really the fourth generation of cellular technology and speed. I personally feel like it’s pretty quick. I don’t really have any qualms. I can watch YouTube videos with data and not have to buffer already, and things are really great. But 5G takes that one step further and it actually can boost speed by up to like a hundred times.
So what this is going to allow vehicles to do is be a part of the internet of things, which I think will probably be a part of that episode as well, where really a lot of items, a lot of vehicles and thermostats and buildings and wearables and cell phones and all this stuff is all interconnected on the internet, talking to each other in real time and making communication really, really quick. And that speed is really what helps these vehicles communicate with one another. So if you’ve got two vehicles going down the highway and they’re both autonomous and they are connected and see each other and stuff like that, they can interact with one another, not run into each other and things like that.
Josh Robb:
Not just the cars, but roads as well. If you have smart roads, with the idea that technology built into the road to help direct and steer within … Because one thing that can be confusing now with autonomous vehicles is construction. So you have a road, but now it’s under construction, so now you’re supposed to merge one direction or another or there’s cones put up. Right now, the autonomous vehicle, what does it do? But if the roads are smart and they can communicate and talk to you, they push you the right direction.
Austin Wilson:
I think a sidebar is that someday in the future when this is more caught on, is that users who do not embrace this technology are probably going to be penalized on a cost basis from their insurance companies and stuff like that. Once autonomous vehicles and this technology becomes widespread, very popular, proven very safe, those who choose not to embrace it are going to have to pay higher insurance premiums because their human driving is going to be more risky than the driving that a computer could do. And I think that that’s something that is a real risk to people who are not going to be wanting to change into… embrace this technology in the future. So yeah, I think that’s something that’s coming up and going to be very interesting.
[23:27] – “Riding” the Autonomy Growth with Your Investments
Austin Wilson:
I guess I did want to talk about some investments in autonomy and how you can ride this growth category.
Josh Robb:
Ride it?
Austin Wilson:
I wrote that and did not even … Man, I’m good.
Josh Robb:
You’re so funny by yourself.
Austin Wilson:
I’m good.
Josh Robb:
Without even trying.
Austin Wilson:
So yes, how can I be a participant of the trend of embracing the autonomous technology?
Josh Robb:
The passenger in this.
Austin Wilson:
How can I ride along? So things that I always want to point out is that you should always discuss how these investments fit your overall portfolio picture with your advisor. Some investments however, that could offer significant exposure to autonomy could be automakers. So companies like Tesla, we already talked about, General Motors, we already talked about. Ford also obviously has their own autonomy projects and stuff going on, electric vehicle projects going on. Those are just the United States companies around that specifically.
Also, tech companies. Google is one specifically with their Waymo division. You’ve got chip companies, Intel, Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, Skyworks Solutions. These kinds of technology companies are ways to … That are definitely going to be used in these vehicles as they need a lot of processing power for sure.
5G companies, when you’re talking about how the internet, the connectivity and the internet of things is going to impact this. Companies like Verizon, AT&T for sure are going to have an impact here. Ride sharing companies like Uber and Lyft, they’re going to have implications with this autonomy as well.
Josh Robb:
Yep. When we talk about any new technology is coming out, you’re going to see a lot of volatility in here as well. So that’s why we’re mentioning a lot of companies here. And again, talk with your advisor about what works with you. These aren’t necessarily any recommendations from us in any way. But the idea is when you’re entering into anything new there, there’s a lot of unknowns, there’s a lot of risks you take for success or failure as you try new products. But now we’re talking not only about a new technology, but new technology that could potentially hurt or kill people. So you’re adding in another factor that the government at some point may step in as well. So this is looking forward, especially when it comes to investing is you got to be cautious and understand what you’re getting into before you invest because there’s a lot of factors at play including human lives and which could have a big impact on regulation.
Austin Wilson:
Absolutely. And also, we’ll probably discuss this more as this podcast grows, but investing in single securities can be a lot more volatile than investing in a fund or a separately managed account portfolio or something with some diversification. But an opportunity to diversify a little bit, but still be focused on this trend. And this is not in any way sponsored by any of these investments, but there are some ETFs that track this autonomous vehicle movement and we’ll have a future episode talking about ETFs in general and what they are and how to use them in your portfolio. But there’s one with the ticker, DRIV, which is the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF. And there’s one called the KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility ETF, which is KARS, Innovation Shares NextGen Vehicles and Technology ETF, EKAR.
Josh Robb:
So wait, slow down. One of the cool things about ETFs is with stocks, there’s a lot of companies out there. A lot of the cool tickers are taken. Mutual funds, you need the X on the end. Pretty much mutual funds, they’re long, they’re hodgepodge of letters. ETFs, which are newer, there’s a lot of cool little abbreviations that you can get with your tickers, right? So you got DRIV, D-R-I-V, you got KARS, K-A-R-S, then you got EKAR, E-K-A-R. It’s fun. And every time I see those tickers it just cracks me up.
Austin Wilson:
Makes you want to invest in it just because it’s got a creative ticker.
Josh Robb:
They probably have somebody on staff that’s whole job is just come up with a cool ticker for their ETF.
Austin Wilson:
I know. And I bet there’s like bidding wars for tickers.
Josh Robb:
Oh I bet.
Austin Wilson:
Yes.
Josh Robb:
Like the internet-
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, domain names.
Josh Robb:
People grabbing up domain names, yep.
Austin Wilson:
Domain flipping. Ticker flipping.
Josh Robb:
That’s where it is.
Austin Wilson:
You buy it for nothing, you sell it for billions.
[27:23] – Biggest Set-Backs of Autonomous Vehicles Today
Josh, what is really the biggest hang-up when it comes to autonomy and that technology?
Josh Robb:
Yeah, so there was a survey by CARiD or do you call it carid?
Austin Wilson:
I don’t know. I’m going to go CARiD.
Josh Robb:
CARiD, I think that’s fine.
Austin Wilson:
But we’ll link it below just anyway.
Josh Robb:
There’s a link. But they were surveying and asking, would you drive a new autonomous car? And so the survey, first, they asked people to identify what an autonomous vehicle was, which the answer being, being controlled by technology, entirely by technology. 48% were able to correctly guess. That’s what an autonomous vehicle meant. 52% thought that there was some sort of human control with the autonomous-
Austin Wilson:
So more than half really don’t really understand fully what autonomous vehicles are anyway.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, there’s still some education that needs to happen I think.
Austin Wilson:
Right. Hopefully.
Josh Robb:
So keep that in mind as you look at some of these answers that half the people didn’t fully understand an autonomous vehicle, or fully the autonomous vehicle.
Austin Wilson:
James Bond would say, “That’s shocking! Positively shocking.”
Josh Robb:
So in this survey, 75% respondents said, given the choice they would rather drive than ride in an autonomous vehicle. 75% seems high to me considering, have you ever been on a trip with little kids? If I could stop driving and pay attention to their screaming and help them with their-
Austin Wilson:
Dad, play with me.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, or just, hey, hand them that juice box and that snack to get them the rest of the way. That would help with the trip.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, don’t do that while you’re driving. That’s just not smart.
Josh Robb:
64% said they would choose autonomous vehicles and they would rather own than rent or hire one. So even going back to that, what Musk was saying that he thinks that it’ll be more of a rideshare idea, still two thirds of the people would rather own it, still want to own a vehicle. That mindset of owning is still there. If you look at the question was asked, okay, if you’re in a fully autonomous world, okay, we have self-driving cars, would you miss driving? 71% said they would miss driving. I think I’d fall in that boat.
Austin Wilson:
I think so. But I also feel like that number’s probably high and it’s only going to go down over time because millennials and younger, less and less people are driving all the time and people are moving to bigger cities where driving is less of a big deal. So I feel like that number is going to trickle down over time. That seems a little high to me, but it makes sense for where we are today if the majority of your drivers are older anyway.
Josh Robb:
Yeah, and even I was talking with my little kids, they were saying that at school their teacher is talking about, they may not even have to get a driver’s license. Depending on this advancement of technology, you have some of these little kids, in 15 years, there may be these vehicles where it’s maybe not the same driver’s license thing that we’re used to because there’s less driving involved.
Austin Wilson:
Hold onto your Jeep, so you can show them what it’s like to ride on a horse and buggy.
Josh Robb:
Dad, what is that? What is that stick you keep shifting?
Austin Wilson:
There’s a steering wheel. What do you turn that for?
Josh Robb:
So as we look through some of these other questions they had, one of the other ones was 55% of that survey said that they think having autonomous vehicles would greatly reduce, but not eliminate accidents. While 24% said they think it would stay the same. And then the rest were in between. But greatly reduced, half the people think that will help. And so I think that’ll be a big piece of moving it forward because, like I said, the government at some point is going to have to make some decisions on what they allow, what they don’t, who’s responsible for accidents, all that stuff. And if the general population in the United States is leaning towards wanting this and thinking it will help in the long run, that may help push the legislation one way or another.
Austin Wilson:
I think another key point is to think of where America is going to fall in the global picture of autonomy. Are we going to lead it or are we going to lag and adopt it after China or somewhere in Europe adopts it? And I think based on the fact that we have the largest tech companies, some of the largest car companies in the world that will probably lead it, but it’s going to take the adoption, the public trust and adoption thoughts first.
Josh Robb:
All right. So last piece of that survey, when asked how they would feel about riding in an autonomous vehicle, 8% said they would feel very safe, 38% said somewhat safe, 29% said somewhat unsafe, and then 24% said very unsafe.
Austin Wilson:
That’s the ticker.
Josh Robb:
If we say right now, Austin, if I had a vehicle out there and I said it was fully autonomous right now, because I think that was the question they asked, like driving now, how would you feel?
Austin Wilson:
Right now, I would say somewhat unsafe.
Josh Robb:
I think I’m in the same boat.
Austin Wilson:
I mean I think that there were probably fail safes in place that would keep it from being very unsafe.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
But I think that especially in the day to day driving that I do, not quite there yet.
Josh Robb:
No. But yeah, if I was going to jump on the highway and what’s available now in the Tesla or anything along that route, I would say, if I’m on the highway I would probably have my hands somewhere right around the steering wheel. And I don’t know if I would get any benefit of any sort of relaxation from that at all.
Austin Wilson:
Makes me more of a stressor.
Josh Robb:
But I would say I would be somewhat unsafe because had I see a car approaching me, I would get a little more antsy, had my foot hovering over the brake. But I think I would, yeah, somewhat.
Austin Wilson:
I think the key statistic there is that well over half of respondents to that survey, and take that with a grain of salt, I don’t know how big the survey was.
Josh Robb:
About a couple of thousand, just around a thousand, yeah.
Austin Wilson:
But over 50% said somewhat unsafe or very unsafe. So more than half the population, you could extrapolate that to say not quite trusting autonomous safety.
Josh Robb:
Yep.
[32:59] – What’s Next for Autonomous Vehicles?
Austin Wilson:
So Josh, what is next? Like what are some of the next things that could be impacted by autonomous vehicles, autonomous driving, those kinds of things?
Josh Robb:
Yeah, I think obviously the end goal is anything that requires some sort of driving will become autonomous. So the big one would be airplanes. If you think about that one, I think that will also be the hardest one. If you look at what happened with Boeing, they’re starting to, not just them, but in general, that industry is moving to having more computer driven results, less manual from the pilot. And so that was part of what Boeing ran into is their anti-stall technology there was reacting to indicators that were causing it to do things that shouldn’t do and that was … It could be manually overridden, but when you’re talking about a large plane with a lot of different pieces, that was what was called those plane crashes because even the pilot trying to correct it, it would then revert back and it was causing issues.
Austin Wilson:
And a lot of that’s going to continue to be training. Just like they’re working on the fixes, having to train everyone, training everyone when things go. Because I’m sure there’s going to have to be some sort of override process, where people have to be trained and who knows what that will look like. But getting the public to trust airplanes in gener?
Josh Robb:
Yeah. So you want to take my survey on that? How safe would I feel getting in to an airplane? Yeah, that would be very unsafe right now. But yeah, that’s the biggest thing is that coming up with that people’s mindset because … Another one would be trains. So if you think about trains, I think that would be one that would be a lot easier to automate.
Austin Wilson:
It seems easy.
Josh Robb:
You’re stuck on a track, it’s not like you have to make turns.
Austin Wilson:
On or off. Yeah.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. But you still see, I mean Amtrak had some accidents last couple of years. And there are pieces that they’re automating, but they’re adjusting the speeds and stuff. When you think of subways in the larger cities, where they’re making these periodic stops. We were at the airport and they have those little tram systems and I don’t see anybody in those. Those are pretty … I would say pretty automated, where I think the technology is there where when you’re stuck on a track, it makes it a little easier because there’s less decisions. There’s no one crossing in front of you from a train standpoint. Trains don’t merge lanes like that. And so I think there’s some room there for the automation.
And the big one for cost saving would be trucking. Couple of years ago, I was at a local university, Bowling Green State University, and they hosted a thing and they were talking about autonomous truck driving and the idea that you could save a lot of money and time for companies when they’re shipping things through trucks. Some of the early technology would just be linking multiple trucks together, letting the lead truck have a driver but the ones behind it react instantaneously to that truck driving’s movement. So he breaks, everybody breaks, he swerved, left, everybody swears left and then the idea is you take turns so you extend the drive time. Well that’s an easier technology to get to because you still have drivers, they’re just each taking turns driving.
Austin Wilson:
I think that that trucks, because we’re already in the United States anyway, have a really shortage of truck drivers. Truck drivers are very lucrative and we’re importing truck drivers from all around the world to drive trucks because we need to get all the stuff as a very consumer-driven nation, all the stuff we order, all the stuff we buy needs delivered, and trucks is the most effective way to do that right now. I think that this will alleviate a bit of that and hopefully, it will bring down logistics costs and hopefully cost to consumers. But I have the thought that that will probably just lead to bigger profits for logistics companies, but both could be okay.
Josh Robb:
Yeah. And then you talk about just getting spots from point A to point B from a trucking standpoint. There’s still got to be delivery. Somebody’s got to deliver and unload and load, but getting them from one spot to another, that’s where you can save a lot.
Josh Robb:
Ride sharing, you talked about Uber and Lyft, the idea that … Especially large cities where owning a vehicle may not be cost effective. That, okay, instead of waiting for a taxi or ordering an Uber, I order a vehicle to show up without anybody in it and I get in the back and it drives me somewhere where I need to go and then it goes find somewhere else to hang out. And so the idea of you don’t need a taxi driver at that point then, you have a vehicle with a built in navigation system.
Austin Wilson:
Right.
Josh Robb:
And then the last one is just the idea, if you think it through, who would be able to utilize this would be the elderly. Because as people age, one of the things that happens is the safety in their driving for them and for others can be affected. And so there’s some laws being in place about how often do you need to go get a new license based on your age to make sure you’re still safe to drive. Well, if the car is driving, the passenger’s age is irrelevant, so it allows more mobility for longer for elderly people.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah, they can be independent as long as possible and stretch that out, and not really need help from other people. So yeah, I think that could really help out.
[37:36] – In Conclusion, Get Your Free Gifts!
Austin Wilson:
So I guess in conclusion I’d expect to see some future upcoming James Bond movie to incorporate some full autonomous technology. But I would probably anticipate that it will be in a movie before we see it, especially on the streets of Findlay, Ohio because that movie technology’s pretty far ahead of reality typically. But hey, it could be coming very, very soon and that’s something that we are anticipating and we’re excited about that technology and where that’s headed.
Josh Robb:
All right. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you check out our website. We got a free gift for you there. It’s 8 Principles of Timeless Investing. It’s free. You get to download it. Just give us your email and we’ll send it to you. They have eight overarching investment themes. They’re meant to keep you on track to help you meet your long-term goals. It’s on our website at theinvesteddads.com.
Austin Wilson:
And finally, to help us to continue to grow this podcast and help a lot of people, we need you and we need your help. So we’re giving away some swag. So we’re giving away t-shirts, official Invested Dad t-shirts to help create some buzz through Apple Podcasts. So what you need to do to get your free t-shirt is leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, screenshot that review, and then email the screenshot to hello at theinvesteddads.com and we will follow up with the first 25 subscribers who send that screenshot to the email address that we just talked about, and we’ll get your shirt size and mailing address and get that shirt to you. The shirts are awesome, so shout out to Flag City Clothing in Findlay, Ohio for really hooking us up with some awesome shirts.
And I do want to note that this giveaway is only for North American subscribers. So US, Canada, and Mexico, due logistics costs and customs and stuff like that, it’s just the most simple way to do that, as well as the fact that it’s really hard for us to see some reviews if left abroad. But if you do leave us a review and you’re not in those areas, we love you and we’re thankful for you, so thank you for doing that anyway.
As always, thanks for listening. If you liked what you heard, subscribe so you can get future episodes as they come out. We’ll be launching episodes every single week on Thursdays.
Josh Robb:
All right. Have a great day.
Austin Wilson:
Thanks, bye.
Outro:
Thank you for listening to the Invested Dads Podcast. This episode has ended, but your journey towards a better financial future doesn’t have to. Head over to the investeddads.com to access all the links and resources mentioned in today’s show. If you enjoyed this episode and we had a positive impact on your life, leave us a review. Click subscribe and don’t miss the next episode.
Josh Robb and Austin Wilson worked for Hixon Zuercher Capital Management. All opinions expressed by Josh, Austin, or any podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Hixon Zuercher Capital Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Hixon Zuercher Capital Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecast provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses, which would reduce returns. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.
