What exactly is the Delta Variant of COVID-19? What does this mean for our future? Josh and Austin answer the questions that are on everyone’s minds in today’s episode! This episode is dedicated to help you learn more about the COVID-19 Delta Variant, the health concerns that come along with it, and how it will impact your financial future. Tune in now!
Main Talking Points
[3:39] – Statistics and Background of the Delta Variant
[7:44] – Symptoms of the Delta Variant
[9:10] – Comparing the Delta Variant to “Normal” COVID-19
[10:28] – Vaccines
[12:16] – Dad Joke of the Week
[13:33] – Will the Delta Variant Sink Stocks?
[15:25] – How this Impacts Your Investment Portfolio
Links & Resources
Invest With Us – The Invested Dads
Free Guide: 8 Timeless Principles of Investing
Social Media
Full Transcript
Intro:
Welcome to The Invested Dads Podcast, simplifying financial topics so that you can take action and make your financial situation better. Helping you to understand the current world of financial planning and investments, here are your hosts, Josh Robb and Austin Wilson.
Austin Wilson:
All right. Hey, hey, hey. Welcome back to The Invested Dads Podcast, the podcast where we take you on a journey to better your financial future. Today, Josh, we are going to be talking about whether or not the COVID-19 Delta variant will sink stocks.
Josh Robb:
So I have a personal experience with the Delta variant. We flew recently, and they had to change our takeoff and landing times so that would be a Delta variant, wouldn’t it?
Austin Wilson:
Because you flew Delta.
Josh Robb:
Because it was different than original, yeah.
Austin Wilson:
Okay, okay. I got you. I’m about to fly Delta, so I’m going to be watching out for the Delta variant when I’m flying Delta.
Josh Robb:
So they change your time. Ours went up 20 minutes.
Austin Wilson:
That’s a variant, but they may get you there earlier. That could be a variant in a good way.
Josh Robb:
One of our flights did move earlier in and it got us home earlier, which is nice.
Austin Wilson:
Unrelated, I saw that it was American Airlines, they came out with a statement, due to the increased cost of jet fuel, they are instructing their pilots to slow down and let off the gas when they can.
Josh Robb:
Interesting. Well, I’ve noticed that because when they did move our flights, they moved it earlier, but the time actually got shorter and I thought, how does moving your time make your flight shorter. It should be the same distance, you move them equally.
Austin Wilson:
Got a heavy foot.
Josh Robb:
I guess.
Austin Wilson:
You can pick it up a little bit.
Josh Robb:
That’s crazy.
Austin Wilson:
They’re instructing pilots to-
Josh Robb:
You don’t just always fly your jet as fast as you can.
Austin Wilson:
You’d think you would.
Josh Robb:
You think you’d want to that.
Austin Wilson:
Now we’re going to have an entire episode about space, investing in space. I think it’s fun. Another topic for another day, but one of the bull cases for getting space travel understood and all this stuff is that low level space travel, kind of like that 50 to 60.
Josh Robb:
Yeah.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah. Like that 50 to 60 miles space area where Branson and Bezos went. That could be used-
Josh Robb:
Kind of outer space.
Austin Wilson:
It’s like ish. Apparently, they did not earn their wings according to NASA, it’s official not. No, sorry, Bezos, you’re not an astronaut, but anyway, one of the bull cases for this technology and this understanding is international flights can now be beyond the speed of sound and super efficient because there’s no friction, no anything. So, you should be able to get around the world in no time. So that’s one of the bull cases of that.
Josh Robb:
Sounds interesting.
Austin Wilson:
Pretty cool. But anyway-
Josh Robb:
I’m getting up there.
Austin Wilson:
It’s a lot of work.
Josh Robb:
60 miles in the air. You wonder if you save anything doing that?
Austin Wilson:
Maybe not now, but in the future, when you get the hybrid power rockets. Yeah. We’re going to be getting there. So anyway, no, no, no. Josh, we’re not talking about variants in your Delta flight. We are actually going to be talking about the new and prevalent COVID-19 variant that’s going around the world now. To clarify, we’re also not talking about Loki’s, the new Disney plus series, Loki and variants involved in Loki. Which, spoiler, there are variants of a lot of things and that… I don’t know that show, I give it like a B minus.
Josh Robb:
I enjoyed it.
Austin Wilson:
It was okay. It was not Falcon and The Winter Soldier good. I also liked the Wanda Vision a lot. Was not that good. So it’s like third place in my Disney plus series.
Josh Robb:
I enjoyed it. It was good.
[3:39] – Statistics and Background of the Delta Variant
Austin Wilson:
But that’s not what we’re talking about either. So Josh, what could it be? Is the big question. So I’m going to talk about some statistics and some information about the Delta variant of COVID-19. So, the Delta variant is the latest prominent COVID variant, officially known as B1617.2, which there’s nothing Delta or D in there. So like who knows. But it was found in India in December of 2020, which is now about seven, eight months old. It’s spreading fast. In fact, it is currently contributing more cases than the original Alpha a variant of COVID. So, it’s all the rage right now.
Josh Robb:
It’s not unusual. I mean, if you would be talk about other diseases to see variants. I mean, every year they have a flu vaccine and that’s not because they’re trying to give you the same thing. It’s because there’s a new version of variant for the flu virus that has mutated or adjusted. That’s really what this is. It’s a mutation off of the original, that’s slightly different, different enough where someone who’s gotten the original could still get this and possibly their immunity will not protect them.
Austin Wilson:
Correct. Yeah. These viruses evolve over, after they continue to spread and spread and spread, they find weaknesses in humans. I don’t know, maybe animals have their own things, but I’m talking humans specifically. They find the weaknesses and the way that we interact in our immune systems and how our bodies work, and they then evolve to exploit those weaknesses, which is what’s happening here, because some statistics are… Now things are relatively new. This is not hardcore accurate. They’re still learning about this as we speak, but it’s estimated that this Delta variant is 43 to 90. So that’s a big range, but 43 to 90% more transmissible than the other variants or specifically original variant of that. So that’s significantly more transmissible, which means you can give it to people or get it from people 43 to 90% more.
Josh Robb:
Which is crazy in the fact that part of the reason COVID was such a big concern, was COVID was even more transmissible.
Austin Wilson:
So this is way more than that.
Josh Robb:
Right. So it’s pretty effective at being passed on. As a virus standpoint, it does a good job of what it’s trying to do.
Austin Wilson:
Absolutely. It is an effective virus. It’s becoming more effective all the time. It’s also estimated to be around 30 to a 100%, so that’s another very large range, more infectious than the original variant. The original one did some very bad things. This one is more, substantially more, infectious than the original. So transmissible and infectious, both of which worse off than original. So experts don’t actually know why it’s more transmissible, but many believe it could have to do with the protein and how easily it can enter human cells. It could also blend better with your cells to attach itself more easily. This helps it to be tougher for your immune system to fight or detect as quickly, and that is from a WebMD article that I’ll link in the show notes below. So you can check that out for a little bit more information on that, but that’s kind of what we know over now.
We don’t know a whole lot. It’s still relatively new, but early indications actually are showing that younger people are now more susceptible to this strain than they were the originals. Actually about two and a half times more likely to become infected than with the original Alpha variant.
Josh Robb:
Is that to become infected or to show symptoms because I know there’s a lot of asymptomatic for that original one.
[7:44] – Symptoms of the Delta Variant
Austin Wilson:
Well that could be as well. We’ll get to more about the symptoms in a little bit, but it’s affecting more young people than the original one. That’s one of the things that was kind of a saving grace of how the original COVID variant worked out was, generally speaking, the younger you were, the less chance that things would get serious. It wasn’t perfect, but the less chance, and the older you were, the higher risk you were. This is a little bit less cut and dry. So I think that that’s one of the reasons that people are maybe becoming a little bit more scared because they don’t understand that. So that’s something that’s watching.
Another key factor is that it appears more deadly. So actual death or hospitalization. So when you talk about comparing it again to the original, you have roughly doubled the chances of hospitalization, and if you go to the hospital with COVID, usually then your chances are even higher for passing from it. So that’s not necessarily good either. Talking about symptoms. One thing you mentioned before, many symptoms are similar to the alpha variant. So headaches, sore throats, runny nose, fever, those kinds of things are similar, but the cough that was kind of one of the key indicators of COVID and the loss of smell, which was the big one. Those are much less common. They’re not even listed in the top 10 symptoms of the Delta variant. So that actually is what not having those symptoms is keeping people from thinking they have COVID and then they’re going out and spreading it around.
Josh Robb:
Yeah that, that loss of smell and taste is because nothing else did that. Right? If I lost sense of smell or taste, you’re like, “Oh man, I know what this is,” and I’m going to stay away from everybody. But you’re right. If I just have a headache, sore throat, runny nose.
Austin Wilson:
It sounds like any flu or cold.
Josh Robb:
It sounds like allergies and it sounds like everything you experienced on a given year and it ranges. You could have mild, and you could still be just as contagious. So those are issues that, you’re right, it makes it even harder to know.
Austin Wilson:
Not even talking about it, but asymptomatic is real. There are tons and tons and tons and probably millions of people who’ve had either the alpha or the Delta variant that never showed any symptoms whatsoever yet they had it and they could have passed it to other people without even knowing it. It’s not their fault. They just didn’t know. It’s craziness.
[9:10] – Comparing the Delta Variant to “Normal” COVID-19
Josh Robb:
So how different is this really from the, what you would call, normal or the regional COVID? What do you see here? What do you got?
Austin Wilson:
So like normal. Normal air quotes on a podcast. Yeah. It is pretty different. It’s very similar in many ways to the alpha strain, which is common with these viruses. Like we mentioned, it’s that evolution of the ease of transmission, the deadliness, the infectious side of things that changes. That’s just normal. Like you mentioned, with these viruses, they become tougher to counteract over time, and that’s why we need to continuously be on top of things. It’s exactly what we’re seeing here. So it really shouldn’t be a surprise. I don’t think it is to medical experts. They kind of had anticipated that we’d be seeing strains, and they had been from the beginning actually seeing different strains of this, but this is the big one that’s looking to cause a huge impact.
In fact, the majority of cases around the world are now COVID Delta. They’re now Delta variant instead. I was looking at a graph that came out. I forget who put it out, but a 100% of cases in the UK right now are Delta variant. It trickles down. I think the US is somewhere in the eighties or some 60 to 80. I don’t know something there. So yeah, it’s pretty prevalent, it’s all over the place now.
[10:28] – Vaccines
Josh Robb:
So now we do have the COVID vaccine, and those were all originally developed for the original, the alpha strain. But it seems like they’re still pretty effective against this Delta variant and that when you look at their ability to prevent, like you said, the extreme end of things, hospitalization and death, they still have a high probability. They’re not perfect, but they have a high probability of success.
Austin Wilson:
Yeah. I think the Pfizer Moderna two shot doses and there was one in… What’s the one in Europe? AstraZeneca?
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
I think those are all to the two-shot mRNA vaccines. Those are extremely effective. Not a hundred percent, but 90 some percent effective at preventing hospitalization, which is the key. Then as you step down, so you can go, okay, there’s hospitalization, then there’s symptomatic infection a little bit less effective at that. Then you’ve got asymptomatic infection a little bit less effective at that. Then you have transmission in general. So it just kind of steps down. But generally speaking, still quite effective at preventing what is most important, which is fatalities and hospitalizations, which usually lead to fatalities. So not great, but it’s much better than it would have been had these variants been occurring without already having that technology.
Josh Robb:
They’ve talked about possibly booster and things like that, which would help-
Austin Wilson:
You could fine tune the original.
Josh Robb:
Even enhance that effectiveness Of it. Yeah.
[12:16] – Dad Joke of the Week
Austin Wilson:
I think one of the major discussions right now is developing booster shots, particularly aimed for the more vulnerable people. So the older or the immunocompromised people, those could be the ones that may need the booster shot, where the normal immunizations may be plenty for younger, healthier people. So on that bleak and sad thought of a variant of COVID-19, Josh, I need my weekly dose, my vaccine of Dad Joke of the week.
Josh Robb:
Okay. Question for you Austin. Do you know why golfers carry an extra sock in their golf bag?
Austin Wilson:
I am going to give you an answer that’s wrong. Okay. Because I’ve golfed before and I’m really bad at it, but I’ve lost some balls in the water and that’d be so that you could stick one foot in the water and pull it out and put a dry sock on.
Josh Robb:
That would possibly be a reason, but you just take your sock off if we’re going to do that. A golfer carries an extra sock in his bag in case he gets a hole in one. Get the hole in one.
Austin Wilson:
Oh Josh. That’s funny. I like it. I like it. We should go golfing sometime.
Josh Robb:
We should.
Austin Wilson:
I’m really bad.
Josh Robb:
I’m not great, but I enjoy it.
Austin Wilson:
It’s fun.
Josh Robb:
Yes.
Austin Wilson:
It’s outdoors time.
Josh Robb:
When my six-year-old almost beats me.
Austin Wilson:
It makes it all full circle for you. Just like driving the car, right?
Josh Robb:
Yeah. If you watch a six year old drive a car, that’ll scare you.
Austin Wilson:
Oh, okay. So yes. Good joke, Josh. I guess making this practical, it’s kind of what we want to do.
[13:33] – Will the COVID-19 Delta Variant Sink Stocks?
Josh Robb:
The original question was not even informative on the Delta variant, but you want to know what will be the impact on the stock market? Is this new strain going to have an impact? That was what you were originally asking.
Austin Wilson:
That was my original answer.
Josh Robb:
I still want to know.
Austin Wilson:
You want to know. Okay. My answer to that is. Drum roll, please.
Josh Robb:
I’m ready.
Austin Wilson:
Probably not.
Josh Robb:
Okay. You sound very confident.
Austin Wilson:
I sound very confident in my definitely maybe not. Now, this isn’t to say we’re not going to have a correction or even a bear market. Even in the near future, in fact, statistically speaking, we’ll probably have a 10% correction this year. We haven’t yet. We’ve had some really good returns thus far, but I believe that we now know much more about this virus than we did a year or year and a half ago. We have world-class vaccination rates and technology here, especially in the United States, which provides significant but not perfect protection, especially, the most vulnerable. As a country, I think we saw what a nationwide shutdown did to the economy and the well-being of the whole country in general last year in 2020. That’s not something we want to be doing again.
I really think that we’re going to… It’s going to take years and even decades to heal a lot of the especially economic damage that’s already been done for this. So I don’t think we’re willing to do that again. I think we don’t have to. I think we were at to the point where we have that, we understand it a little bit more than we did. Any re-introduced restrictions will probably be more localized, more targeted at more high incident areas, high risk areas. People will continue to be encouraged to get vaccinated even with the existing technology we already have. At this point, that’s the best option that they have. International travel, I think is still going to remain depressed. We’re not going to see open borders and people flying all over the place to do whatever they want for a while. That’s just not where we’re at right now. But this is something that I think the country is going to manage.
But what that makes me think Josh, is how should people look or think about their portfolios, their investments, their retirement plan and their situation on a personal level in light of all of this?
[15:25] – How This Impacts Your Investment Portfolio
Josh Robb:
Yep. So this is just one of many impacts to someone’s investment portfolio. If you pulled up a stock chart and overlaid that with headlines, from newspapers or news sites, you would always see something’s going on that could cause you the same amount of concern or uncertainty, and that always comes back to our thought and process of you need to be diversified so that not one thing is going to impact your portfolio significantly. You spread out. You also need to understand that you have a goal, you have an investment philosophy, you have a process, you need to stick with it. Don’t try to time the market. Like you said, could there be a correction this year? There could. I mean, it happens every 12 to 18 months, so we’re getting close to the timeframe. So, yeah, it could happen, could not. But what we know is that for long-term investors, these short-term blips are irrelevant.
The longer you have, the longer you have to invest, the higher chance you have of successfully growing your money. So like you said, the unknowns, you’re not an expert, I’m not an expert, we don’t try to time the market. What we know is you need to set up your goals, you need to find the best plan to reach those goals and stick with it. There’s a lot of variables outside of the Delta. If some of these spending bills are passed, that could stimulate our economy and offset other things. There’s a lot of variables that go on. So yeah, there’s so much that you could become paralyzed from decision-making just based on all of the information that’s out there.
Austin Wilson:
I think that’s the key is paralyzed from all of the news. You’re being inundated with this. Generally speaking, the news that you’re reading or hearing or seeing is going to be all clickbaity headline. Maybe it was, “Hey, is the Delta Variant going to crash the stock market?” I don’t know. That’s the title of this episode. It’s a good bait. Right? Well, that’s kind of in a classic example of you are naturally going to click on something and read something that sounds fear driver based. This is just a great reminder for all of us to not get too caught up in that. We don’t have to read everything that comes out. We don’t have to watch the news or listen to the news every day. Unless it’s your job. Some people that’s their job. Don’t believe or read everything on the internet or social media like it’s just not-
Josh Robb:
I heard everything on the internet is true though. So we’re probably okay with that, but no, you’re right. It’s just make sure that when you’re setting up a rational plan, don’t have irrational fears change that plan. If you sat down with your financial advisor and came up with a good high probability plan that historically has done well, there’s no reason to deviate from that. Unless, something in your situation changes to cause you to reevaluate. Just these types of things are not an excuse. You
Austin Wilson:
All that to say that something like this is not something to lose sleep about when it comes to your portfolio. Your advisor may be thinking about and planning for this already for you-
Josh Robb:
Making adjustments.
Austin Wilson:
That is okay, but it isn’t worth selling now just going to cash, just because of this. Now, if that is part of your financial plan and you need the cash for a goal or whatever, that is, that’s one thing. But just because of this, the risk is actually at this point in my personal opinion, but the way the markets are going right now, there’s risk to not be in the market. It’s doing pretty well, but that is, there is risk in the market as well. So it’s really simple, right? Josh, when you have money, what do you do?
Josh Robb:
You leave it?
Austin Wilson:
Or you buy it, buy stocks.
Josh Robb:
I assumed it was already invested. We don’t have extra money. You’re investing it. You leave it invested.
Austin Wilson:
When you need money-
Josh Robb:
You get money.
Austin Wilson:
That’s it. It’s just really that simple. So Josh, don’t try and make it over complicated. These things have happened before and they’re going to happen again and stick to the plan, right?
Josh Robb:
Yep. But if you do want to day trade, we have a stock draft that is fictitious money that you can day trade to your heart’s content with no long-term impact because it’s not real money.
Austin Wilson:
In fact, we’re both down.
Josh Robb:
Yes. But if you want to join us, there’s still time.
Austin Wilson:
There is. There’s still time. It’s not too late. In fact, it’s not too late until the end of the year, when it’s over. You can go all the way up to the end and start to enter our second half official, The invested dads stock draft, fantasy stock draft even. I don’t know what you want to call it. It has a long name, but we have a post on our website, with that episode and the details of how you can enter to beat Josh and I, in that second half stock draft. As always, check out our free gift to you, it’s a brief list of eight principles of timeless investing. These are overarching investment themes meant to keep you on track to meet your long-term goals. Check it out it’s free on our website. We try and keep it long-term oriented. So things like the Delta variant are not part of that. So don’t think they are. It’s not something to worry about in the short term, it’s free on our website. Josh, how can people help us grow this podcast?
Josh Robb:
Make sure you subscribe, that way every Thursday, you get our newest episode sent directly to whatever device you use to listen. Leave us a review on apple podcasts. That way we rank higher, which means more people will find us and hopefully we can help more people. If you have any questions, you want to know more about this, have a thought on the Delta variant or want to know you’re having a hard time with stock draft, shoot us an email. hello@theinvesteddads.com. If you know somebody who is talking about this, had questions about the Delta variant, or just needs that reminder of staying invested longterm, share this episode with them.
Austin Wilson:
If they have questions about the actual Delta variant and COVID in general, we’re probably not your solution. That would be a good doctor question
Josh Robb:
We could point you to the right spot.
Austin Wilson:
As it relates to the market. Happy to help. Well until next week, have a great week. Talk to you later. Bye.
Outro:
Thank you for listening to The Invested Dads Podcast. This episode has ended, but your journey towards a better financial future, doesn’t have to. Head over to the investeddads.com to access all the links and resources mentioned in today’s show. If you enjoyed this episode and we had a positive impact on your life, leave us a review, click subscribe, and don’t miss the next episode. Josh Robb and Austin Wilson work for Hixon Zuercher Capital Management, all opinions expressed by Josh, Austin, or any podcast guests, are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Hixon Zuercher Capital Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Hixon Zuercher Capital Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses, which would reduce returns. Securities investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principle. There is no assurance that any investment plan or strategy will be successful.
